Vlasina 1–1 Morava Vladičin Han: Result & Stats

Vlasina

FT

1 – 1

Morava Vladičin Han

3/28/2021

Srpska Liga - East · East - 24Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vlasina68%

×Draw18%

Morava Vladičin Han14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VlasinaExpected goals in this matchMorava Vladičin Han

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.30

0.94

Vlasina

2.30

Morava Vladičin Han

0.94

Vlasina creates 145% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 19 away

1.81

creates per match

0.95

0.94

allows per match

2.79

creates per match

Vlasina

1.81

Morava Vladičin Han

0.95

allows per match

Vlasina

0.94

Morava Vladičin Han

2.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par

Morava Vladičin Han+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Morava Vladičin Han →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw

86%

Vlasina or Morava Vladičin Han

82%

Draw or Morava Vladičin Han

32%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+

44%

Morava Vladičin Han wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals

90%

Vlasina 2+ goals

67%

Vlasina 3+ goals

40%

Morava Vladičin Han 1+ goals

61%

Morava Vladičin Han 2+ goals

24%

Morava Vladičin Han 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)

83%

Morava Vladičin Han (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Morava Vladičin Han away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Morava Vladičin Han defence 2.79 → ÷2 → 2.30

Morava Vladičin Han attack 0.95 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Vlasina scores more

68%

level

18%

Morava Vladičin Han scores more

14%

Vlasina at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff