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Vlasina vs FK Trayal — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
0 – 1
FK Trayal
FK Trayal
3/10/2024Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 17Stadion Rosulja

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Vlasina30%
×Draw26%
FK Trayal44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
1.12
FK Trayal
1.42

FK Trayal creates 27% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 30 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
FK Trayal
1.90

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
FK Trayal
0.43

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
FK Trayal+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

FK Trayal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
56%
Vlasina or FK Trayal
74%
Draw or FK Trayal
70%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
12%
FK Trayal wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
67%
Vlasina 2+ goals
31%
Vlasina 3+ goals
10%
FK Trayal 1+ goals
76%
FK Trayal 2+ goals
41%
FK Trayal 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
40%
FK Trayal (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

FK Trayal away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.43 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + FK Trayal defence 0.43 → ÷2 → 1.12

FK Trayal attack 1.90 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Vlasina scores more
30%
level
26%
FK Trayal scores more
44%

FK Trayal at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "FK Trayal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vlasina vs FK Trayal

FK Trayal beat Vlasina 1-0 in Srpska Liga - East on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Rosulja in Vlasotince.