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Vlasina vs Djerdap Kladovo — Srpska Liga - East 2019

Vlasina
Vlasina
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Djerdap Kladovo
Djerdap Kladovo
5/31/2026Srpska Liga - EastSrpska Liga - East · East - 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Vlasina59%
×Draw22%
Djerdap Kladovo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlasina
1.99
Djerdap Kladovo
1.06

Vlasina creates 88% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 44 away

creates per match

Vlasina
1.81
Djerdap Kladovo
1.18

allows per match

Vlasina
0.94
Djerdap Kladovo
2.16

finishing

Vlasina+0.00on par
Djerdap Kladovo+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlasina ↓

Djerdap Kladovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Vlasina or draw
80%
Vlasina or Djerdap Kladovo
78%
Draw or Djerdap Kladovo
41%

Winning margin

Vlasina wins by 2+
35%
Djerdap Kladovo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vlasina 1+ goals
86%
Vlasina 2+ goals
59%
Vlasina 3+ goals
32%
Djerdap Kladovo 1+ goals
65%
Djerdap Kladovo 2+ goals
29%
Djerdap Kladovo 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vlasina (draw refunded)
75%
Djerdap Kladovo (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlasina at home — creates 1.81, concedes 0.94 · 102 matches

Djerdap Kladovo away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.16 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlasina attack 1.81 + Djerdap Kladovo defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.99

Djerdap Kladovo attack 1.18 + Vlasina defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Vlasina scores more
59%
level
22%
Djerdap Kladovo scores more
20%

Vlasina at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Vlasina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vlasina vs Djerdap Kladovo

Vlasina beat Djerdap Kladovo 2-1 in Srpska Liga - East on May 31, 2026.