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Vlašim vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Vlašim
Vlašim
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
4/1/2025FNLFNL · Round 17Stadion Kollárova ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Vlašim45%
×Draw26%
Vyškov30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlašim
1.49
Vyškov
1.16

Vlašim creates 28% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 60 away

creates per match

Vlašim
1.76
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Vlašim
1.15
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Vlašim+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlašim ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vlašim or draw
70%
Vlašim or Vyškov
74%
Draw or Vyškov
55%

Winning margin

Vlašim wins by 2+
22%
Vyškov wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vlašim 1+ goals
77%
Vlašim 2+ goals
44%
Vlašim 3+ goals
19%
Vyškov 1+ goals
69%
Vyškov 2+ goals
32%
Vyškov 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vlašim (draw refunded)
60%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlašim at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.15 · 103 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlašim attack 1.76 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Vlašim defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Vlašim scores more
45%
level
26%
Vyškov scores more
30%

Vlašim at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Vlašim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vlašim 0–0 Vyškov

Vlašim and Vyškov drew 0-0 in FNL on April 1, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Kollárova ulice in Vlašim.