Vlašim 2–4 Sparta Praha II: Result & Stats | FNL

Vlašim

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Sparta Praha II

11/1/2024

FNL · Round 15Stadion Kollárova ulice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Vlašim52%

×Draw23%

Sparta Praha II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VlašimExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.15

Vlašim

1.79

Sparta Praha II

1.15

Vlašim creates 56% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 75 away

1.76

creates per match

1.15

allows per match

1.81

creates per match

Vlašim

1.76

Sparta Praha II

1.15

allows per match

Vlašim

1.15

Sparta Praha II

1.81

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vlašim+0.00on par

Sparta Praha II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlašim ↓

Sparta Praha II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vlašim or draw

76%

Vlašim or Sparta Praha II

77%

Draw or Sparta Praha II

48%

Winning margin

Vlašim wins by 2+

29%

Sparta Praha II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Vlašim 1+ goals

83%

Vlašim 2+ goals

53%

Vlašim 3+ goals

26%

Sparta Praha II 1+ goals

68%

Sparta Praha II 2+ goals

32%

Sparta Praha II 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vlašim (draw refunded)

68%

Sparta Praha II (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlašim at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.15 · 103 matches

Sparta Praha II away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.81 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlašim attack 1.76 + Sparta Praha II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.79

Sparta Praha II attack 1.15 + Vlašim defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vlašim scores more

52%

level

23%

Sparta Praha II scores more

24%

Vlašim at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vlašim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff