Vlašim 1–1 Prostějov: Result & Stats | FNL

Vlašim

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Prostějov

4/24/2026

FNL · Round 25Stadion v Kollarove ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Vlašim54%

×Draw23%

Prostějov23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VlašimExpected goals in this matchProstějov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.08

Vlašim

1.79

Prostějov

1.08

Vlašim creates 66% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

1.76

creates per match

1.02

1.15

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Vlašim

1.76

Prostějov

1.02

allows per match

Vlašim

1.15

Prostějov

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vlašim+0.00on par

Prostějov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlašim ↓

Prostějov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vlašim or draw

77%

Vlašim or Prostějov

77%

Draw or Prostějov

46%

Winning margin

Vlašim wins by 2+

30%

Prostějov wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vlašim 1+ goals

83%

Vlašim 2+ goals

53%

Vlašim 3+ goals

26%

Prostějov 1+ goals

66%

Prostějov 2+ goals

29%

Prostějov 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Vlašim (draw refunded)

70%

Prostějov (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlašim at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.15 · 103 matches

Prostějov away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.83 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlašim attack 1.76 + Prostějov defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.79

Prostějov attack 1.02 + Vlašim defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vlašim scores more

54%

level

23%

Prostějov scores more

23%

Vlašim at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vlašim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff