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Vlašim vs Chrudim — FNL 2019

Vlašim
Vlašim
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Chrudim
Chrudim
9/19/2025FNLFNL · Round 10Stadion v Kollarove ulici

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Vlašim49%
×Draw24%
Chrudim26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vlašim
1.66
Chrudim
1.14

Vlašim creates 46% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 104 away

creates per match

Vlašim
1.76
Chrudim
1.13

allows per match

Vlašim
1.15
Chrudim
1.56

finishing

Vlašim+0.00on par
Chrudim+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vlašim ↓

Chrudim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Vlašim or draw
74%
Vlašim or Chrudim
76%
Draw or Chrudim
51%

Winning margin

Vlašim wins by 2+
26%
Chrudim wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vlašim 1+ goals
81%
Vlašim 2+ goals
49%
Vlašim 3+ goals
23%
Chrudim 1+ goals
68%
Chrudim 2+ goals
32%
Chrudim 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vlašim (draw refunded)
65%
Chrudim (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vlašim at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.15 · 103 matches

Chrudim away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vlašim attack 1.76 + Chrudim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Chrudim attack 1.13 + Vlašim defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vlašim scores more
49%
level
24%
Chrudim scores more
26%

Vlašim at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Vlašim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FNL: Vlašim 1–1 Chrudim

Vlašim and Chrudim drew 1-1 in FNL on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion v Kollarove ulici in Vlasim.