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VJS vs P-Iirot — Kakkonen - Lohko B 2026

VJS
VJS
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
P-Iirot
P-Iirot
5/12/2024Kakkonen - Lohko BKakkonen - Lohko B · Group B - 7Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

VJS51%
×Draw22%
P-Iirot26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS
1.90
P-Iirot
1.31

VJS creates 45% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 56 away

creates per match

VJS
1.76
P-Iirot
1.25

allows per match

VJS
1.36
P-Iirot
2.04

finishing

VJS+0.00on par
P-Iirot+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

P-Iirot →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

VJS or draw
74%
VJS or P-Iirot
78%
Draw or P-Iirot
49%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+
29%
P-Iirot wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals
85%
VJS 2+ goals
56%
VJS 3+ goals
29%
P-Iirot 1+ goals
73%
P-Iirot 2+ goals
38%
P-Iirot 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)
66%
P-Iirot (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.36 · 33 matches

P-Iirot away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.04 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 1.76 + P-Iirot defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.90

P-Iirot attack 1.25 + VJS defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

VJS scores more
51%
level
22%
P-Iirot scores more
26%

VJS at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VJS vs P-Iirot

VJS beat P-Iirot 2-1 in Kakkonen - Lohko B on May 12, 2024.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.