VJS 4–3 OLS: Result & Stats | Ykkönen

VJS

FT

4 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

OLS

O. Ojala 77'

E. Hannula 62'

Unknown 60' (OG)

J. Rahja 13'

T. Ablade 87'

E. Merikanto 80', 32'

7/11/2026

Ykkönen · Group StageMyyrmaen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

VJS44%

×Draw23%

OLS32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VJSExpected goals in this matchOLS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.43

VJS

1.71

OLS

1.43

VJS creates 20% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 35 away

1.88

creates per match

1.60

1.25

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

VJS

1.88

OLS

1.60

allows per match

VJS

1.25

OLS

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

VJS+0.00on par

OLS+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

OLS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

VJS or draw

68%

VJS or OLS

77%

Draw or OLS

56%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+

23%

OLS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals

82%

VJS 2+ goals

51%

VJS 3+ goals

24%

OLS 1+ goals

76%

OLS 2+ goals

42%

OLS 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)

58%

OLS (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 1.88, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

OLS away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.54 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 1.88 + OLS defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.71

OLS attack 1.60 + VJS defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

VJS scores more

44%

level

23%

OLS scores more

32%

VJS at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

32'

43'

55'

56'

60'

Own goal

62'

E. Hannula

62'

S. Ala-Iso← L. Leevi

62'

A. Korkala← O. Lamsa

66'

A. Achenchab← J. Rahja

66'

J. Holopainen← D. Hvidberg

68'

J. Mabinda

73'

T. Ablade← J. Polvi

73'

I. Arvola← S. Ala-Iso

74'

V. Salo← K. Koivunen

74'

O. Ojala← N. Kaijasilta

77'

80'

80'

87'

90+2'

T. Koponen← A. Babiker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ykkönen: VJS 4–3 OLS

VJS beat OLS 4-3 in Ykkönen on July 11, 2026.

Goals: J. Rahja (13'), E. Merikanto (32', 80'), ? (60' o.g.), E. Hannula (62'), O. Ojala (77'), T. Ablade (87').

The match was played at Myyrmaen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.

VJS vs OLS — Ykkönen 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Ykkönen: VJS 4–3 OLS