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VJS vs MiPK — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2018

VJS
VJS
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
MiPK
MiPK
6/9/2019Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Round 7Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion (Vantaa)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

VJS60%
×Draw20%
MiPK20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS
2.21
MiPK
1.22

VJS creates 81% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 33 away

creates per match

VJS
2.25
MiPK
1.24

allows per match

VJS
1.20
MiPK
2.18

finishing

VJS+0.00on par
MiPK+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

MiPK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

VJS or draw
80%
VJS or MiPK
80%
Draw or MiPK
40%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+
37%
MiPK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals
89%
VJS 2+ goals
65%
VJS 3+ goals
38%
MiPK 1+ goals
70%
MiPK 2+ goals
34%
MiPK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)
75%
MiPK (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.20 · 20 matches

MiPK away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.18 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 2.25 + MiPK defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 2.21

MiPK attack 1.24 + VJS defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

VJS scores more
60%
level
20%
MiPK scores more
20%

VJS at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

VJS 2 – 2 MiPK

VJS and MiPK drew 2-2 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 9, 2019.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion (Vantaa).