Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

VJS vs JPS — Kakkonen - Lohko A 2025

VJS
VJS
FT
6 – 0
HT: 4 – 0
JPS
JPS
S. Kerge 60'
S. Hyvarinen 58'
A. Nyholm 43', 32', 27'
M. Marin 9'
6/18/2025Kakkonen - Lohko AKakkonen - Lohko A · Group A - 10Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

VJS88%
×Draw8%
JPS4%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS
3.83
JPS
0.78

VJS creates 391% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

VJS
3.22
JPS
0.78

allows per match

VJS
0.78
JPS
4.44

finishing

VJS+0.00on par
JPS+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS ↓

JPS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–11%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–13%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 3–0 (10%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

VJS or draw
96%
VJS or JPS
92%
Draw or JPS
12%

Winning margin

VJS wins by 2+
74%
JPS wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

VJS 1+ goals
98%
VJS 2+ goals
88%
VJS 3+ goals
71%
JPS 1+ goals
54%
JPS 2+ goals
18%
JPS 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

VJS (draw refunded)
96%
JPS (draw refunded)
4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS at home — creates 3.22, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

JPS away — creates 0.78, concedes 4.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS attack 3.22 + JPS defence 4.44 → ÷2 → 3.83

JPS attack 0.78 + VJS defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 88%?"

VJS scores more
88%
level
8%
JPS scores more
4%

VJS at 88% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 88% does not mean "VJS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
M. Marin
27'
A. Nyholm
32'
A. Nyholm
43'
A. Nyholm
46'
S. Kerge← S. Kerge
46'
S. Hyvarinen← S. Hyvarinen
53'
T. Horii
58'
S. Hyvarinen
60'
S. Kerge
64'
J. Heinonen← J. Heinonen
64'
V. Jurvanen← V. Jurvanen
64'
L. Rainerma← L. Rainerma
64'
S. Arponen← S. Aatsinki
71'
J. Johansson← J. Johansson
75'
T. Kinnunen← T. Kinnunen
75'
J. Etelapaa← A. Medjadji
84'
S. Tuohimaa← S. Tuohimaa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kakkonen - Lohko A: VJS 6–0 JPS

VJS beat JPS 6-0 in Kakkonen - Lohko A on June 18, 2025.

Goals: M. Marin (9'), A. Nyholm (27', 32', 43'), S. Hyvarinen (58'), S. Kerge (60').

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.