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VJS II vs PuiU Helsinki — Suomen Cup 2018

VJS II
VJS II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
PuiU Helsinki
PuiU Helsinki
4/16/2025Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VJS II8%
×Draw11%
PuiU Helsinki81%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS II
1.15
PuiU Helsinki
3.68

PuiU Helsinki creates 220% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 9 away

creates per match

VJS II
1.29
PuiU Helsinki
4.22

allows per match

VJS II
3.14
PuiU Helsinki
1.00

finishing

VJS II+0.00on par
PuiU Helsinki+0.00on par

Total goals

85%Over
  • Over85
  • Under15

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS II ↓

PuiU Helsinki →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–26%
0–37%
0–47%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–01%
2–12%
2–24%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–3 (8%) · grid covers 75% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
95%5%2.5
85%15%3.5
69%31%4.5
49%51%

Double chance

VJS II or draw
19%
VJS II or PuiU Helsinki
89%
Draw or PuiU Helsinki
92%

Winning margin

VJS II wins by 2+
3%
PuiU Helsinki wins by 2+
64%

Team goals

VJS II 1+ goals
68%
VJS II 2+ goals
32%
VJS II 3+ goals
11%
PuiU Helsinki 1+ goals
97%
PuiU Helsinki 2+ goals
87%
PuiU Helsinki 3+ goals
69%

Draw no bet

VJS II (draw refunded)
9%
PuiU Helsinki (draw refunded)
91%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

PuiU Helsinki away — creates 4.22, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS II attack 1.29 + PuiU Helsinki defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

PuiU Helsinki attack 4.22 + VJS II defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 81%?"

VJS II scores more
8%
level
11%
PuiU Helsinki scores more
81%

PuiU Helsinki at 81% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 81% does not mean "PuiU Helsinki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: VJS II 1–3 PuiU Helsinki

PuiU Helsinki beat VJS II 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2025.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.