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VJS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi — Suomen Cup 2018

VJS II
VJS II
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
MPS/Atletico Malmi
MPS/Atletico Malmi
4/14/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

VJS II6%
×Draw10%
MPS/Atletico Malmi84%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS II
0.90
MPS/Atletico Malmi
3.57

MPS/Atletico Malmi creates 297% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

VJS II
1.29
MPS/Atletico Malmi
4.00

allows per match

VJS II
3.14
MPS/Atletico Malmi
0.50

finishing

VJS II+0.00on par
MPS/Atletico Malmi+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Over
  • Over81
  • Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS II ↓

MPS/Atletico Malmi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–14%
0–28%
0–39%
0–48%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–27%
1–38%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–12%
2–23%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–3 (9%) · grid covers 76% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
81%19%3.5
63%37%4.5
42%58%

Double chance

VJS II or draw
16%
VJS II or MPS/Atletico Malmi
90%
Draw or MPS/Atletico Malmi
94%

Winning margin

VJS II wins by 2+
2%
MPS/Atletico Malmi wins by 2+
68%

Team goals

VJS II 1+ goals
59%
VJS II 2+ goals
23%
VJS II 3+ goals
6%
MPS/Atletico Malmi 1+ goals
97%
MPS/Atletico Malmi 2+ goals
86%
MPS/Atletico Malmi 3+ goals
67%

Draw no bet

VJS II (draw refunded)
6%
MPS/Atletico Malmi (draw refunded)
94%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

MPS/Atletico Malmi away — creates 4.00, concedes 0.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS II attack 1.29 + MPS/Atletico Malmi defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

MPS/Atletico Malmi attack 4.00 + VJS II defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

VJS II scores more
6%
level
10%
MPS/Atletico Malmi scores more
84%

MPS/Atletico Malmi at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "MPS/Atletico Malmi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VJS II vs MPS/Atletico Malmi

MPS/Atletico Malmi beat VJS II 2-0 in Suomen Cup on April 14, 2022.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.