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VJS II vs KäPa — Suomen Cup 2018

VJS II
VJS II
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
KäPa
KäPaadvanced
4/28/2026Suomen CupSuomen Cup · Round of 64Myyrmaen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VJS II14%
×Draw15%
KäPa71%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS II
1.40
KäPa
3.17

KäPa creates 126% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

creates per match

VJS II
1.29
KäPa
3.20

allows per match

VJS II
3.14
KäPa
1.50

finishing

VJS II+0.00on par
KäPa+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Over
  • Over83
  • Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS II ↓

KäPa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–25%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–28%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–12%
3–22%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
83%17%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

VJS II or draw
29%
VJS II or KäPa
85%
Draw or KäPa
86%

Winning margin

VJS II wins by 2+
6%
KäPa wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

VJS II 1+ goals
75%
VJS II 2+ goals
41%
VJS II 3+ goals
17%
KäPa 1+ goals
96%
KäPa 2+ goals
82%
KäPa 3+ goals
60%

Draw no bet

VJS II (draw refunded)
17%
KäPa (draw refunded)
83%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

KäPa away — creates 3.20, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS II attack 1.29 + KäPa defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.40

KäPa attack 3.20 + VJS II defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 3.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

VJS II scores more
14%
level
15%
KäPa scores more
71%

KäPa at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "KäPa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: VJS II 1–3 KäPa

KäPa beat VJS II 3-1 in Suomen Cup on April 28, 2026.

The match was played at Myyrmaen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.