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VJS II vs HPS II — Suomen Cup 2018

VJS II
VJS II
FT
1 – 0
HPS II
HPS II
3/31/2022Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundVantaankoski TN

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

VJS II12%
×Draw15%
HPS II73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS II
1.15
HPS II
2.97

HPS II creates 158% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

VJS II
1.29
HPS II
2.80

allows per match

VJS II
3.14
HPS II
1.00

finishing

VJS II+0.00on par
HPS II+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS II ↓

HPS II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

VJS II or draw
27%
VJS II or HPS II
85%
Draw or HPS II
88%

Winning margin

VJS II wins by 2+
4%
HPS II wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

VJS II 1+ goals
68%
VJS II 2+ goals
32%
VJS II 3+ goals
11%
HPS II 1+ goals
95%
HPS II 2+ goals
79%
HPS II 3+ goals
56%

Draw no bet

VJS II (draw refunded)
14%
HPS II (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

HPS II away — creates 2.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS II attack 1.29 + HPS II defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

HPS II attack 2.80 + VJS II defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

VJS II scores more
12%
level
15%
HPS II scores more
73%

HPS II at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "HPS II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: VJS II vs HPS II

VJS II beat HPS II 1-0 in Suomen Cup on March 31, 2022.

The match was played at Vantaankoski TN in Vantaa.