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VJS II vs Gnistan — Suomen Cup 2018

VJS II
VJS II
FT
1 – 8
HT: 0 – 1
Gnistan
Gnistan
4/16/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 3rd RoundMyyrmäen jalkapallostadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

VJS II15%
×Draw16%
Gnistan69%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

VJS II
1.27
Gnistan
2.82

Gnistan creates 122% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 16 away

creates per match

VJS II
1.29
Gnistan
2.50

allows per match

VJS II
3.14
Gnistan
1.25

finishing

VJS II+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

VJS II ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–27%
0–36%
0–45%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–35%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–42%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

VJS II or draw
31%
VJS II or Gnistan
84%
Draw or Gnistan
85%

Winning margin

VJS II wins by 2+
6%
Gnistan wins by 2+
48%

Team goals

VJS II 1+ goals
72%
VJS II 2+ goals
36%
VJS II 3+ goals
14%
Gnistan 1+ goals
94%
Gnistan 2+ goals
77%
Gnistan 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

VJS II (draw refunded)
18%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

VJS II at home — creates 1.29, concedes 3.14 · 7 matches

Gnistan away — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

VJS II attack 1.29 + Gnistan defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.27

Gnistan attack 2.50 + VJS II defence 3.14 → ÷2 → 2.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

VJS II scores more
15%
level
16%
Gnistan scores more
69%

Gnistan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Gnistan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Suomen Cup: VJS II 1–8 Gnistan

Gnistan beat VJS II 8-1 in Suomen Cup on April 16, 2024.

The match was played at Myyrmäen jalkapallostadion in Vantaa.