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Vjosa vs 2 Korriku — Cup 2019

Vjosa
Vjosaadvanced
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
2 Korriku
2 Korriku
2/3/2024CupCup · Round of 16Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vjosa56%
×Draw19%
2 Korriku25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vjosa
2.42
2 Korriku
1.57

Vjosa creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vjosa
1.25
2 Korriku
1.40

allows per match

Vjosa
1.75
2 Korriku
3.60

finishing

Vjosa+0.00on par
2 Korriku+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vjosa ↓

2 Korriku →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Vjosa or draw
75%
Vjosa or 2 Korriku
81%
Draw or 2 Korriku
44%

Winning margin

Vjosa wins by 2+
35%
2 Korriku wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vjosa 1+ goals
91%
Vjosa 2+ goals
69%
Vjosa 3+ goals
43%
2 Korriku 1+ goals
79%
2 Korriku 2+ goals
46%
2 Korriku 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Vjosa (draw refunded)
69%
2 Korriku (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vjosa at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

2 Korriku away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vjosa attack 1.25 + 2 Korriku defence 3.60 → ÷2 → 2.42

2 Korriku attack 1.40 + Vjosa defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vjosa scores more
56%
level
19%
2 Korriku scores more
25%

Vjosa at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Vjosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vjosa vs 2 Korriku

Vjosa beat 2 Korriku 4-1 in Cup on February 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.