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Vizela vs Fontinhas — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
6 – 1
Fontinhas
Fontinhas
9/29/2019Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 2nd RoundEstádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vizela55%
×Draw22%
Fontinhas24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
2.01
Fontinhas
1.26

Vizela creates 60% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.63
Fontinhas
1.40

allows per match

Vizela
1.13
Fontinhas
2.40

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Fontinhas+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Fontinhas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
76%
Vizela or Fontinhas
78%
Draw or Fontinhas
45%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
32%
Fontinhas wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
87%
Vizela 2+ goals
59%
Vizela 3+ goals
32%
Fontinhas 1+ goals
72%
Fontinhas 2+ goals
36%
Fontinhas 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
70%
Fontinhas (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Fontinhas away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.63 + Fontinhas defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.01

Fontinhas attack 1.40 + Vizela defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vizela scores more
55%
level
22%
Fontinhas scores more
24%

Vizela at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vizela 6–1 Fontinhas

Vizela beat Fontinhas 6-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.