Vizela 0–1 FC Porto: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Vizela

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

FC Porto

8/14/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 2Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vizela22%

×Draw25%

FC Porto53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VizelaExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.94

1.63

Vizela

0.94

FC Porto

1.63

FC Porto creates 73% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

1.08

creates per match

1.83

1.42

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Vizela

1.08

FC Porto

1.83

allows per match

Vizela

1.42

FC Porto

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–112%

0–210%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Vizela or draw

47%

Vizela or FC Porto

75%

Draw or FC Porto

78%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+

7%

FC Porto wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals

61%

Vizela 2+ goals

24%

Vizela 3+ goals

7%

FC Porto 1+ goals

80%

FC Porto 2+ goals

48%

FC Porto 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)

29%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

FC Porto away — creates 1.83, concedes 0.79 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.08 + FC Porto defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.94

FC Porto attack 1.83 + Vizela defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vizela scores more

22%

level

25%

FC Porto scores more

53%

FC Porto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff