Vizela 1–3 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Vizela

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC Porto

Cassiano 24'

Evanilson 90'

Fábio Vieira 65' (pen)

M. Uribe 8'

1/12/2022

Taça de Portugal · Quarter-finalsEstádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vizela21%

×Draw23%

FC Porto56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VizelaExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.83

Vizela

1.04

FC Porto

1.83

FC Porto creates 76% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 24 away

1.63

creates per match

2.54

1.13

allows per match

0.46

creates per match

Vizela

1.63

FC Porto

2.54

allows per match

Vizela

1.13

FC Porto

0.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Vizela or draw

44%

Vizela or FC Porto

77%

Draw or FC Porto

79%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+

8%

FC Porto wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals

65%

Vizela 2+ goals

28%

Vizela 3+ goals

9%

FC Porto 1+ goals

84%

FC Porto 2+ goals

54%

FC Porto 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)

28%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

FC Porto away — creates 2.54, concedes 0.46 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.63 + FC Porto defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 1.04

FC Porto attack 2.54 + Vizela defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vizela scores more

21%

level

23%

FC Porto scores more

56%

FC Porto at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "FC Porto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

M. Uribe

24'

Cassiano↳ Guilherme Schettine

34'

Mehdi Taremi

46'

Tiago Silva← Cassiano

46'

Fábio Vieira← J. Corona

46'

Pepê Aquino← M. Taremi

62'

Mateus Uribe

65'

Fábio VieiraPenalty

71'

F. Etim← Guilherme Schettine

73'

75'

79'

84'

90+4'

David Martins← Igor Julião

90+4'

João Machado← F. Cann

90+1'

Francisco Conceição← M. Uribe

90+1'

M. Grujić← L. Díaz

90'

Evanilson↳ Bruno Costa

Statistics

VizelaFC

Discipline

0Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0