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Vizela vs Fafe — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Vizela
Vizela
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fafe
Fafe
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vizela27%
×Draw21%
Fafe52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.50
Fafe
2.13

Fafe creates 42% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.50
Fafe
1.25

allows per match

Vizela
3.00
Fafe
1.50

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Fafe+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Fafe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
48%
Vizela or Fafe
79%
Draw or Fafe
73%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
12%
Fafe wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
78%
Vizela 2+ goals
44%
Vizela 3+ goals
19%
Fafe 1+ goals
88%
Fafe 2+ goals
63%
Fafe 3+ goals
35%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
34%
Fafe (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

Fafe away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.50 + Fafe defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fafe attack 1.25 + Vizela defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vizela scores more
27%
level
21%
Fafe scores more
52%

Fafe at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fafe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Vizela
Fafe
Ronald Molina
Manager: Ronald Molina
Mario Ferreira
Manager: Mario Ferreira

Vizela 0 – 3 Fafe

Fafe beat Vizela 3-0 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.