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Vizela vs Estrela — Taça de Portugal 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Estrela
Estrela
11/20/2021Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vizela54%
×Draw22%
Estrela24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.93
Estrela
1.23

Vizela creates 57% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.63
Estrela
1.33

allows per match

Vizela
1.13
Estrela
2.22

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Estrela+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Estrela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
76%
Vizela or Estrela
78%
Draw or Estrela
46%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
31%
Estrela wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
85%
Vizela 2+ goals
57%
Vizela 3+ goals
30%
Estrela 1+ goals
71%
Estrela 2+ goals
35%
Estrela 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
69%
Estrela (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Estrela away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.22 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.63 + Estrela defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.93

Estrela attack 1.33 + Vizela defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vizela scores more
54%
level
22%
Estrela scores more
24%

Vizela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Vizela 2–0 Estrela

Vizela beat Estrela 2-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.