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Vizela vs Cova De Piedade — Segunda Liga 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Cova De Piedade
Cova De Piedade
1/10/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 15Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vizela54%
×Draw25%
Cova De Piedade21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.60
Cova De Piedade
0.91

Vizela creates 76% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.57
Cova De Piedade
0.83

allows per match

Vizela
0.98
Cova De Piedade
1.63

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Cova De Piedade+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Cova De Piedade →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
79%
Vizela or Cova De Piedade
75%
Draw or Cova De Piedade
46%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
28%
Cova De Piedade wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
80%
Vizela 2+ goals
47%
Vizela 3+ goals
22%
Cova De Piedade 1+ goals
60%
Cova De Piedade 2+ goals
23%
Cova De Piedade 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
71%
Cova De Piedade (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Cova De Piedade away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.63 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.57 + Cova De Piedade defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.60

Cova De Piedade attack 0.83 + Vizela defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vizela scores more
54%
level
25%
Cova De Piedade scores more
21%

Vizela at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vizela vs Cova De Piedade

Vizela beat Cova De Piedade 2-1 in Segunda Liga on January 10, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.