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Vizela vs Casa Pia — Segunda Liga 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
2/20/2021Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 21Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Vizela47%
×Draw27%
Casa Pia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
1.44
Casa Pia
1.01

Vizela creates 43% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 46 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.57
Casa Pia
1.04

allows per match

Vizela
0.98
Casa Pia
1.30

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Casa Pia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
74%
Vizela or Casa Pia
73%
Draw or Casa Pia
53%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
23%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
76%
Vizela 2+ goals
42%
Vizela 3+ goals
18%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
64%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
27%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
64%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.98 · 51 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.30 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.57 + Casa Pia defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.44

Casa Pia attack 1.04 + Vizela defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Vizela scores more
47%
level
27%
Casa Pia scores more
26%

Vizela at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vizela vs Casa Pia

Vizela beat Casa Pia 3-1 in Segunda Liga on February 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.