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Vizela vs Benfica — Primeira Liga 2018

Vizela
Vizela
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Benfica
Benfica
9/16/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 5Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vizela20%
×Draw24%
Benfica56%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela
0.95
Benfica
1.74

Benfica creates 83% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

creates per match

Vizela
1.08
Benfica
2.07

allows per match

Vizela
1.42
Benfica
0.81

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par
Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Benfica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Vizela or draw
44%
Vizela or Benfica
76%
Draw or Benfica
80%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+
7%
Benfica wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals
61%
Vizela 2+ goals
25%
Vizela 3+ goals
7%
Benfica 1+ goals
82%
Benfica 2+ goals
52%
Benfica 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)
27%
Benfica (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Benfica away — creates 2.07, concedes 0.81 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.08 + Benfica defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.95

Benfica attack 2.07 + Vizela defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vizela scores more
20%
level
24%
Benfica scores more
56%

Benfica at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Vizela 1–2 Benfica

Benfica beat Vizela 2-1 in Primeira Liga on September 16, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Do Vizela in Caldas de Vizela.