Vizela 1–2 Benfica: Result & Stats

Vizela

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Benfica

Samú 6'

Carlos Vinícius 87'

Raúl de Tomás 70'

11/23/2019

Taça de Portugal · 4th RoundEstádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Vizela29%

×Draw26%

Benfica46%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VizelaExpected goals in this matchBenfica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.52

Vizela

1.14

Benfica

1.52

Benfica creates 33% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 22 away

1.63

creates per match

1.91

1.13

allows per match

0.64

creates per match

Vizela

1.63

Benfica

1.91

allows per match

Vizela

1.13

Benfica

0.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par

Benfica+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Benfica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vizela or draw

54%

Vizela or Benfica

74%

Draw or Benfica

71%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+

11%

Benfica wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals

68%

Vizela 2+ goals

32%

Vizela 3+ goals

11%

Benfica 1+ goals

78%

Benfica 2+ goals

45%

Benfica 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)

38%

Benfica (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Benfica away — creates 1.91, concedes 0.64 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.63 + Benfica defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.14

Benfica attack 1.91 + Vizela defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Vizela scores more

29%

level

26%

Benfica scores more

46%

Benfica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Benfica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

9'

20'

22'

26'

26'

33'

45'

46'

Carlos Vinícius← A. Samaris

54'

J. Pedro

57'

A. Fall← Diogo Ribeiro

67'

Caio Lucas← Gabriel

70'

Raúl de Tomás

74'

Landinho← Samú

81'

André Soares← H. Zagbayou

87'

Carlos Vinícius

Vizela

Benfica

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Álvaro Pacheco

57'▲A. Fall←▼Diogo Ribeiro

74'▲Landinho←▼Samú

81'▲André Soares←▼H. Zagbayou

Vizela substitutes

FallLandinhoSoaresFariaMendesKákáAlves

Manager: Bruno Lage

46'▲Carlos Vinícius←▼A. Samaris

67'▲Caio Lucas←▼Gabriel

Benfica substitutes

ViníciusLucasTavaresCerviContiFernandesVlachodimos