Vizela 2–0 Belenenses: Result & Stats

Vizela

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Belenenses

1/2/2022

Primeira Liga · Round 13Estádio Do Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vizela40%

×Draw28%

Belenenses32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VizelaExpected goals in this matchBelenenses

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.07

Vizela

1.25

Belenenses

1.07

Vizela creates 17% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

1.08

creates per match

0.72

1.42

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Vizela

1.08

Belenenses

0.72

allows per match

Vizela

1.42

Belenenses

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela+0.00on par

Belenenses+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela ↓

Belenenses →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Vizela or draw

68%

Vizela or Belenenses

72%

Draw or Belenenses

60%

Winning margin

Vizela wins by 2+

18%

Belenenses wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Vizela 1+ goals

71%

Vizela 2+ goals

36%

Vizela 3+ goals

13%

Belenenses 1+ goals

66%

Belenenses 2+ goals

29%

Belenenses 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Vizela (draw refunded)

56%

Belenenses (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.42 · 52 matches

Belenenses away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela attack 1.08 + Belenenses defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Belenenses attack 0.72 + Vizela defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Vizela scores more

40%

level

28%

Belenenses scores more

32%

Vizela at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vizela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff