Vizela U19 vs Rio Ave U19 — League #1041 2026
League #1041 · Round 12
Vizela U19 and Rio Ave U19 have never met before
brightest fact of this match
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 3+ matches
Vizela U1930%Rio Ave U1948%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rio Ave U19 creates 29% more chances
Season form · 11 home / 3 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over67
- Under33
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes67
- No33
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Vizela U19 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.91 · 11 matches
Rio Ave U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Vizela U19 attack 1.36 + Rio Ave U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52
Rio Ave U19 attack 1.00 + Vizela U19 defence 2.91 → ÷2 → 1.96
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 48%?"
Rio Ave U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 48% does not mean "Rio Ave U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Vizela U19 host Rio Ave U19 on Sunday, 22 November 2026 at 15:00. The match is part of the League #1041 2026/2027 season.
Vizela U19 vs Rio Ave U19 — Match Preview
Vizela U19 face Rio Ave U19 on November 22, 2026 in this League #1041 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.