Vizela U19 0–1 Rio Ave U19: Result & Stats

Vizela U19

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Rio Ave U19

10/25/2025

League #1041 · Round 11

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Vizela U1927%

×Draw24%

Rio Ave U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vizela U19Expected goals in this matchRio Ave U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.65

Vizela U19

1.16

Rio Ave U19

1.65

Rio Ave U19 creates 42% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 5 away

1.31

creates per match

0.80

2.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Vizela U19

1.31

Rio Ave U19

0.80

allows per match

Vizela U19

2.50

Rio Ave U19

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par

Rio Ave U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Rio Ave U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–28%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–210%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw

51%

Vizela U19 or Rio Ave U19

76%

Draw or Rio Ave U19

73%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+

11%

Rio Ave U19 wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals

69%

Vizela U19 2+ goals

32%

Vizela U19 3+ goals

11%

Rio Ave U19 1+ goals

81%

Rio Ave U19 2+ goals

49%

Rio Ave U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Rio Ave U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Rio Ave U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.31 + Rio Ave U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.16

Rio Ave U19 attack 0.80 + Vizela U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Vizela U19 scores more

27%

level

24%

Rio Ave U19 scores more

49%

Rio Ave U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rio Ave U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff