Vizela U19 1–2 Porto U19: Result & Stats

Vizela U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Porto U19

12/21/2025

League #1041 · Round 16Campo Municipal de Santo Adrião Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Vizela U1917%

×Draw20%

Porto U1962%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vizela U19Expected goals in this matchPorto U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.03

2.13

Vizela U19

1.03

Porto U19

2.13

Porto U19 creates 107% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

1.31

creates per match

1.75

2.50

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Vizela U19

1.31

Porto U19

1.75

allows per match

Vizela U19

2.50

Porto U19

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par

Porto U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Porto U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–19%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–25%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw

38%

Vizela U19 or Porto U19

80%

Draw or Porto U19

83%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+

6%

Porto U19 wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals

64%

Vizela U19 2+ goals

28%

Vizela U19 3+ goals

9%

Porto U19 1+ goals

88%

Porto U19 2+ goals

63%

Porto U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Porto U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Porto U19 away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.31 + Porto U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.03

Porto U19 attack 1.75 + Vizela U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Vizela U19 scores more

17%

level

20%

Porto U19 scores more

62%

Porto U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Porto U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff