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Vizela U19 vs Gil Vicente U19 — League #1041 2026

Vizela U19
Vizela U19
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 0
Gil Vicente U19
Gil Vicente U19
3/9/2024League #1041League #1041 · Relegation Round - 5Campo Municipal de Santo Adrião Vizela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vizela U1942%
×Draw19%
Gil Vicente U1939%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vizela U19
2.49
Gil Vicente U19
2.42

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 16 home / 3 away

creates per match

Vizela U19
1.31
Gil Vicente U19
2.33

allows per match

Vizela U19
2.50
Gil Vicente U19
3.67

finishing

Vizela U19+0.00on par
Gil Vicente U19+0.00on par

Total goals

86%Over
  • Over86
  • Under14

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

83%Yes
  • Yes83
  • No17

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vizela U19 ↓

Gil Vicente U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–26%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 83% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
86%14%3.5
71%29%4.5
53%47%

Double chance

Vizela U19 or draw
61%
Vizela U19 or Gil Vicente U19
81%
Draw or Gil Vicente U19
58%

Winning margin

Vizela U19 wins by 2+
24%
Gil Vicente U19 wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Vizela U19 1+ goals
92%
Vizela U19 2+ goals
71%
Vizela U19 3+ goals
45%
Gil Vicente U19 1+ goals
91%
Gil Vicente U19 2+ goals
69%
Gil Vicente U19 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Vizela U19 (draw refunded)
51%
Gil Vicente U19 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
79%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vizela U19 at home — creates 1.31, concedes 2.50 · 16 matches

Gil Vicente U19 away — creates 2.33, concedes 3.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vizela U19 attack 1.31 + Gil Vicente U19 defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.49

Gil Vicente U19 attack 2.33 + Vizela U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Vizela U19 scores more
42%
level
19%
Gil Vicente U19 scores more
39%

Vizela U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Vizela U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1041: Vizela U19 2–4 Gil Vicente U19

Gil Vicente U19 beat Vizela U19 4-2 in League #1041 on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Santo Adrião Vizela in Santo Adrião Vizela.