Viveiro 1–2 UD Ourense: Result & Stats

Viveiro

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

UD Ourense

Francisco Rolle 81' (pen)

Luismi Rincón 90+1'

José Pérez 53'

9/24/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Viveiro39%

×Draw29%

UD Ourense32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ViveiroExpected goals in this matchUD Ourense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.04

Viveiro

1.18

UD Ourense

1.04

Viveiro creates 13% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 79 away

1.22

creates per match

0.97

1.12

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Viveiro

1.22

UD Ourense

0.97

allows per match

Viveiro

1.12

UD Ourense

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par

UD Ourense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

UD Ourense →

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw

68%

Viveiro or UD Ourense

71%

Draw or UD Ourense

61%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+

17%

UD Ourense wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals

69%

Viveiro 2+ goals

33%

Viveiro 3+ goals

12%

UD Ourense 1+ goals

65%

UD Ourense 2+ goals

28%

UD Ourense 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)

55%

UD Ourense (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

UD Ourense away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + UD Ourense defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.18

UD Ourense attack 0.97 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 39%?"

Viveiro scores more

39%

level

29%

UD Ourense scores more

32%

Viveiro at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Viveiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Francisco Rolle← Samu Quintela

46'

Sergio Cora← Victor Gamarra

46'

Carlos Teixeira← Xabier Etxebarria

53'

José Pérez

56'

Juan López← Adrian Lombao

56'

Jesús Ares← José Pérez

67'

Mauro Busi← Diego Núñez

69'

Varo Fernández← Martín López

81'

Francisco RollePenalty

85'

Luismi Rincón← Antón Guisande

85'

David Rojo← Alberto Novoa

85'

Pablo Parrilla← Labrada

90+1'

Viveiro

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Alberto López

24'▲Francisco Rolle←▼Samu Quintela

46'▲Sergio Cora←▼Victor Gamarra

46'▲Carlos Teixeira←▼Xabier Etxebarria

56'▲Juan López←▼Adrian Lombao

67'▲Mauro Busi←▼Diego Núñez

Viveiro substitutes

RolleCoraTeixeiraLópezBusi

Manager: Jorge de Dios

56'▲Jesús Ares←▼José Pérez

69'▲Varo Fernández←▼Martín López

85'▲Luismi Rincón←▼Antón Guisande

85'▲David Rojo←▼Alberto Novoa

85'▲Pablo Parrilla←▼Labrada

UD Ourense substitutes

AresFernándezRincónRojoParrilla