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Viveiro vs Sarriana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Sarriana
Sarriana
1/14/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Viveiro33%
×Draw27%
Sarriana40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.17
Sarriana
1.33

Sarriana creates 14% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 34 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Sarriana
1.53

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Sarriana
1.12

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Sarriana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Sarriana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
60%
Viveiro or Sarriana
73%
Draw or Sarriana
67%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
13%
Sarriana wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
69%
Viveiro 2+ goals
33%
Viveiro 3+ goals
11%
Sarriana 1+ goals
74%
Sarriana 2+ goals
38%
Sarriana 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
45%
Sarriana (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Sarriana away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Sarriana defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.17

Sarriana attack 1.53 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viveiro scores more
33%
level
27%
Sarriana scores more
40%

Sarriana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sarriana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viveiro vs Sarriana

Sarriana beat Viveiro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.