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Viveiro vs Pontellas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
1 – 1
Pontellas
Pontellas
6/19/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 2nd Phase - 12Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Viveiro56%
×Draw25%
Pontellas20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.63
Pontellas
0.86

Viveiro creates 90% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 31 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Pontellas
0.61

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Pontellas
2.03

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Pontellas+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Pontellas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
80%
Viveiro or Pontellas
75%
Draw or Pontellas
44%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
30%
Pontellas wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
80%
Viveiro 2+ goals
48%
Viveiro 3+ goals
22%
Pontellas 1+ goals
58%
Pontellas 2+ goals
21%
Pontellas 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
74%
Pontellas (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Pontellas away — creates 0.61, concedes 2.03 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Pontellas defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.63

Pontellas attack 0.61 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Viveiro scores more
56%
level
25%
Pontellas scores more
20%

Viveiro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Viveiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Viveiro 1–1 Pontellas

Viveiro and Pontellas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.