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Viveiro vs Paiosaco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Paiosaco
Paiosaco
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 16Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Viveiro49%
×Draw26%
Paiosaco26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.54
Paiosaco
1.04

Viveiro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 63 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Paiosaco
0.97

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Paiosaco
1.86

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Paiosaco+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Paiosaco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
74%
Viveiro or Paiosaco
74%
Draw or Paiosaco
51%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
25%
Paiosaco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
79%
Viveiro 2+ goals
45%
Viveiro 3+ goals
20%
Paiosaco 1+ goals
65%
Paiosaco 2+ goals
28%
Paiosaco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
66%
Paiosaco (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Paiosaco away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Paiosaco defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.54

Paiosaco attack 0.97 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Viveiro scores more
49%
level
26%
Paiosaco scores more
26%

Viveiro at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Viveiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viveiro vs Paiosaco

Viveiro beat Paiosaco 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.