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Viveiro vs Choco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Choco
Choco
3/9/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 18Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Viveiro43%
×Draw28%
Choco29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.32
Choco
1.02

Viveiro creates 29% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 59 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Choco
0.92

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Choco
1.42

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Choco+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Choco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
71%
Viveiro or Choco
72%
Draw or Choco
57%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
20%
Choco wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
73%
Viveiro 2+ goals
38%
Viveiro 3+ goals
15%
Choco 1+ goals
64%
Choco 2+ goals
27%
Choco 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
60%
Choco (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Choco away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.42 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Choco defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Choco attack 0.92 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Viveiro scores more
43%
level
28%
Choco scores more
29%

Viveiro at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Viveiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Viveiro 3–2 Choco

Viveiro beat Choco 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on March 9, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.