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Viveiro vs Betanzos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Betanzos
Betanzos
5/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 32Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Viveiro42%
×Draw28%
Betanzos30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.27
Betanzos
1.02

Viveiro creates 25% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 34 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Betanzos
0.91

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Betanzos
1.32

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Betanzos+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Betanzos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
70%
Viveiro or Betanzos
72%
Draw or Betanzos
58%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
19%
Betanzos wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
72%
Viveiro 2+ goals
36%
Viveiro 3+ goals
14%
Betanzos 1+ goals
64%
Betanzos 2+ goals
27%
Betanzos 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
59%
Betanzos (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Betanzos away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Betanzos defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Betanzos attack 0.91 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Viveiro scores more
42%
level
28%
Betanzos scores more
30%

Viveiro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Viveiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Viveiro vs Betanzos

Betanzos beat Viveiro 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on May 1, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.