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Viveiro vs Atlético Arnoia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Arnoia
Atlético Arnoia
11/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 10Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Viveiro56%
×Draw26%
Atlético Arnoia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.55
Atlético Arnoia
0.78

Viveiro creates 99% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 16 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Atlético Arnoia
0.44

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Atlético Arnoia
1.88

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Atlético Arnoia+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Atlético Arnoia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
81%
Viveiro or Atlético Arnoia
74%
Draw or Atlético Arnoia
44%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
29%
Atlético Arnoia wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
79%
Viveiro 2+ goals
46%
Viveiro 3+ goals
20%
Atlético Arnoia 1+ goals
54%
Atlético Arnoia 2+ goals
18%
Atlético Arnoia 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
75%
Atlético Arnoia (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Atlético Arnoia away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Atlético Arnoia defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.55

Atlético Arnoia attack 0.44 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Viveiro scores more
56%
level
26%
Atlético Arnoia scores more
19%

Viveiro at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Viveiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 1: Viveiro 2–0 Atlético Arnoia

Viveiro beat Atlético Arnoia 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 7, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.