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Viveiro vs Arosa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Viveiro
Viveiro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arosa
Arosa
11/2/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 94+ matches

Viveiro33%
×Draw27%
Arosa40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Viveiro
1.16
Arosa
1.30

Arosa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 99 home / 94 away

creates per match

Viveiro
1.22
Arosa
1.48

allows per match

Viveiro
1.12
Arosa
1.10

finishing

Viveiro+0.00on par
Arosa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Viveiro ↓

Arosa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Viveiro or draw
60%
Viveiro or Arosa
73%
Draw or Arosa
67%

Winning margin

Viveiro wins by 2+
14%
Arosa wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Viveiro 1+ goals
69%
Viveiro 2+ goals
32%
Viveiro 3+ goals
11%
Arosa 1+ goals
73%
Arosa 2+ goals
37%
Arosa 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Viveiro (draw refunded)
45%
Arosa (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Viveiro at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.12 · 99 matches

Arosa away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Viveiro attack 1.22 + Arosa defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.16

Arosa attack 1.48 + Viveiro defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Viveiro scores more
33%
level
27%
Arosa scores more
40%

Arosa at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Arosa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Viveiro 1 – 2 Arosa

Arosa beat Viveiro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on November 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Cantarrana in Viveiro.