Vittsjö W 3–0 Trelleborg W: Result & Stats

Vittsjö W

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Trelleborg W

5/26/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 8Vittsjö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Vittsjö W77%

×Draw15%

Trelleborg W9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vittsjö WExpected goals in this matchTrelleborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.63

0.76

Vittsjö W

2.63

Trelleborg W

0.76

Vittsjö W creates 246% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 13 away

1.48

creates per match

0.38

1.14

allows per match

3.77

creates per match

Vittsjö W

1.48

Trelleborg W

0.38

allows per match

Vittsjö W

1.14

Trelleborg W

3.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vittsjö W+0.00on par

Trelleborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittsjö W ↓

Trelleborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Vittsjö W or draw

91%

Vittsjö W or Trelleborg W

85%

Draw or Trelleborg W

23%

Winning margin

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

55%

Trelleborg W wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

93%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

73%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

48%

Trelleborg W 1+ goals

53%

Trelleborg W 2+ goals

18%

Trelleborg W 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

90%

Trelleborg W (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittsjö W at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.14 · 79 matches

Trelleborg W away — creates 0.38, concedes 3.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittsjö W attack 1.48 + Trelleborg W defence 3.77 → ÷2 → 2.63

Trelleborg W attack 0.38 + Vittsjö W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Vittsjö W scores more

77%

level

15%

Trelleborg W scores more

9%

Vittsjö W at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Vittsjö W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff