Vittsjö W 3–2 Malmö FF W: Result & Stats

Vittsjö W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Malmö FF W

A. Haddock 82'

H. Ekengren 27'

S. Lynn 7'

T. Skoog 60'

A. Plantin 17'

5/24/2025

Damallsvenskan · Round 9Vittsjo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Vittsjö W22%

×Draw21%

Malmö FF W56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vittsjö WExpected goals in this matchMalmö FF W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

2.03

Vittsjö W

1.21

Malmö FF W

2.03

Malmö FF W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.17

creates per match

2.20

1.85

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Vittsjö W

1.17

Malmö FF W

2.20

allows per match

Vittsjö W

1.85

Malmö FF W

1.26

+0.03on par

finishing

+0.80scores more than expected

finishing

Vittsjö W+0.03on par

Malmö FF W+0.80scores more

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vittsjö W ↓

Malmö FF W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–28%

0–35%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Vittsjö W or draw

44%

Vittsjö W or Malmö FF W

79%

Draw or Malmö FF W

78%

Winning margin

Vittsjö W wins by 2+

9%

Malmö FF W wins by 2+

33%

Team goals

Vittsjö W 1+ goals

70%

Vittsjö W 2+ goals

34%

Vittsjö W 3+ goals

12%

Malmö FF W 1+ goals

87%

Malmö FF W 2+ goals

60%

Malmö FF W 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Vittsjö W (draw refunded)

29%

Malmö FF W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vittsjö W at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.85 · 5 matches

Malmö FF W away — creates 2.20, concedes 1.26 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vittsjö W attack 1.17 + Malmö FF W defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

Malmö FF W attack 2.20 + Vittsjö W defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Vittsjö W scores more

22%

level

21%

Malmö FF W scores more

56%

Malmö FF W at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Malmö FF W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

H. Ekengren

Vittsjö W · F

8.5

Match Events

7'

S. Lynn↳ A. Haddock

17'

A. Plantin↳ T. Skoog

27'

H. Ekengren↳ J. Nyby

60'

T. Skoog↳ A. Martensson

65'

B. Persson← K. Kosola

68'

I. Walta← S. Rewucha

68'

N. Persson← J. Tunturi

69'

M. Kristell← M. Persson

74'

H. Sjodahl← J. Nyby

74'

H. Kollanen← L. Sallstrom

79'

L. Gustafsson← A. Plantin

82'

A. Haddock↳ H. Ekengren

86'

Ilona Walta

86'

K. Lind← H. Ekengren

88'

Hannah Sjodahl

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

VittsjöMalmö

Overview

40%Possession60%

9Total Shots12

1.30Expected Goals (xG)1.87

5Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots12

3On Target2

3Off Target7

3Blocked3

7Inside Box7

2Outside Box5

Passing

40%Possession60%

338Total Passes492

234Accurate Passes404

69%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards0

3Offsides0