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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Yantra 2019 — Second League 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
CANC
00:00
Yantra 2019
Yantra 2019
2/27/2021Second LeagueSecond League · Round 20Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa38%
×Draw29%
Yantra 201932%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.16
Yantra 2019
1.04

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 12% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 100 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.10
Yantra 2019
0.95

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.14
Yantra 2019
1.21

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Yantra 2019+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Yantra 2019 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
68%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Yantra 2019
71%
Draw or Yantra 2019
62%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
16%
Yantra 2019 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
69%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
32%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
11%
Yantra 2019 1+ goals
65%
Yantra 2019 2+ goals
28%
Yantra 2019 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
54%
Yantra 2019 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Yantra 2019 away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.10 + Yantra 2019 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Yantra 2019 attack 0.95 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
38%
level
29%
Yantra 2019 scores more
32%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Vitosha Bistritsa host Yantra 2019

February 27, 2021: Vitosha Bistritsa take on Yantra 2019 in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Vitosha Bistritsa host Yantra 2019 at Stadion Vitosha.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.