Vitosha Bistritsa 2–1 Septemvri Simitli

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

2 – 1

Septemvri Simitli

5/10/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 33Stadion Letishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa52%

×Draw25%

Septemvri Simitli23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchSeptemvri Simitli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.00

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.64

Septemvri Simitli

1.00

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 64% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 94 away

1.80

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

Septemvri Simitli

0.96

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.04

Septemvri Simitli

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Septemvri Simitli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

77%

Vitosha Bistritsa or Septemvri Simitli

75%

Draw or Septemvri Simitli

48%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

28%

Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

81%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

49%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

23%

Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals

63%

Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals

26%

Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

69%

Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.64

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

52%

level

25%

Septemvri Simitli scores more

23%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff