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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Levski Krumovgrad — Second League 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Levski Krumovgrad
Levski Krumovgrad
6/4/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 34Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa35%
×Draw28%
Levski Krumovgrad36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.14
Levski Krumovgrad
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 17 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.10
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.14
Levski Krumovgrad
1.18

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Levski Krumovgrad+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Levski Krumovgrad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
64%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Levski Krumovgrad
72%
Draw or Levski Krumovgrad
65%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
14%
Levski Krumovgrad wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
68%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
32%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
11%
Levski Krumovgrad 1+ goals
69%
Levski Krumovgrad 2+ goals
32%
Levski Krumovgrad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
49%
Levski Krumovgrad (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

Levski Krumovgrad away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.10 + Levski Krumovgrad defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.14

Levski Krumovgrad attack 1.18 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
35%
level
28%
Levski Krumovgrad scores more
36%

Levski Krumovgrad at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Levski Krumovgrad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitosha Bistritsa vs Levski Krumovgrad

Levski Krumovgrad beat Vitosha Bistritsa 2-1 in Second League on June 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.