Vitosha Bistritsa 1–0 CSKA 1948 Sofia III

Vitosha Bistritsa

FT

1 – 0

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

3/2/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 21Stadion Letishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa53%

×Draw23%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Vitosha BistritsaExpected goals in this matchCSKA 1948 Sofia III

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.13

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.79

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.13

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 52 away

1.80

creates per match

1.21

1.04

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.80

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.21

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa

1.04

CSKA 1948 Sofia III

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

CSKA 1948 Sofia III+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia III →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw

76%

Vitosha Bistritsa or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

77%

Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia III

47%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+

29%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals

83%

Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals

53%

Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals

26%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 1+ goals

68%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 2+ goals

31%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)

69%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia III away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.79 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + CSKA 1948 Sofia III defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.79

CSKA 1948 Sofia III attack 1.21 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more

53%

level

23%

CSKA 1948 Sofia III scores more

24%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff