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Vitosha Bistritsa vs CSKA 1948 Sofia II — Second League 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
3/31/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 24Stadion Vitosha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa35%
×Draw27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.18
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 71 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.10
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.35

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.14
CSKA 1948 Sofia II
1.25

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
CSKA 1948 Sofia II+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

CSKA 1948 Sofia II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
62%
Vitosha Bistritsa or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
73%
Draw or CSKA 1948 Sofia II
65%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
14%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
69%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
33%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
12%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 1+ goals
71%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2+ goals
36%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
48%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.14 · 21 matches

CSKA 1948 Sofia II away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.25 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.10 + CSKA 1948 Sofia II defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

CSKA 1948 Sofia II attack 1.35 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
35%
level
27%
CSKA 1948 Sofia II scores more
38%

CSKA 1948 Sofia II at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "CSKA 1948 Sofia II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Vitosha Bistritsa 2–1 CSKA 1948 Sofia II

Vitosha Bistritsa beat CSKA 1948 Sofia II 2-1 in Second League on March 31, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Vitosha in Bistrica.