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Vitosha Bistritsa vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
FT
3 – 0
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
11/25/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion Letishte

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Vitosha Bistritsa54%
×Draw24%
Botev Ihtiman22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.73
Botev Ihtiman
1.01

Vitosha Bistritsa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 132 away

creates per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.80
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

Vitosha Bistritsa
1.04
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitosha Bistritsa ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Vitosha Bistritsa or draw
78%
Vitosha Bistritsa or Botev Ihtiman
76%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
46%

Winning margin

Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
30%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
82%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
52%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
25%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
64%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
27%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
71%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitosha Bistritsa at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.04 · 70 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.80 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.73

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
54%
level
24%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
22%

Vitosha Bistritsa at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Vitosha Bistritsa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitosha Bistritsa vs Botev Ihtiman

Vitosha Bistritsa beat Botev Ihtiman 3-0 in Third League - Southwest on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Letishte in Sofia.