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Botev Ihtiman vs Vitosha Bistritsa — Third League - Southwest 2018

Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Vitosha Bistritsa
Vitosha Bistritsa
8/17/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Botev Ihtiman42%
×Draw26%
Vitosha Bistritsa32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Ihtiman
1.41
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.21

Botev Ihtiman creates 17% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 69 away

creates per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.63
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.13

allows per match

Botev Ihtiman
1.29
Vitosha Bistritsa
1.19

finishing

Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par
Vitosha Bistritsa+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Ihtiman ↓

Vitosha Bistritsa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Botev Ihtiman or draw
68%
Botev Ihtiman or Vitosha Bistritsa
74%
Draw or Vitosha Bistritsa
58%

Winning margin

Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
20%
Vitosha Bistritsa wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
76%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
41%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
17%
Vitosha Bistritsa 1+ goals
70%
Vitosha Bistritsa 2+ goals
34%
Vitosha Bistritsa 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
56%
Vitosha Bistritsa (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Ihtiman at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.29 · 131 matches

Vitosha Bistritsa away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.19 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Ihtiman attack 1.63 + Vitosha Bistritsa defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.41

Vitosha Bistritsa attack 1.13 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Botev Ihtiman scores more
42%
level
26%
Vitosha Bistritsa scores more
32%

Botev Ihtiman at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Botev Ihtiman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Botev Ihtiman vs Vitosha Bistritsa

Botev Ihtiman beat Vitosha Bistritsa 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Ihtiman.