Vitoria 1–0 Uritarra: Result & Stats

Vitoria

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Uritarra

4/23/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 37Instalaciones de Unbe

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Vitoria51%

×Draw28%

Uritarra21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

VitoriaExpected goals in this matchUritarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.78

Vitoria

1.38

Uritarra

0.78

Vitoria creates 77% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

0.84

0.73

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Vitoria

1.55

Uritarra

0.84

allows per match

Vitoria

0.73

Uritarra

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par

Uritarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Uritarra →

0–012%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–016%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw

79%

Vitoria or Uritarra

72%

Draw or Uritarra

49%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+

25%

Uritarra wins by 2+

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals

75%

Vitoria 2+ goals

40%

Vitoria 3+ goals

16%

Uritarra 1+ goals

54%

Uritarra 2+ goals

18%

Uritarra 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)

71%

Uritarra (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.73 · 78 matches

Uritarra away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 1.55 + Uritarra defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.38

Uritarra attack 0.84 + Vitoria defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Vitoria scores more

51%

level

28%

Uritarra scores more

21%

Vitoria at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Vitoria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff