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Vitoria vs Universidad Catolica — CONMEBOL Sudamericana 2019

Vitoria
Vitoria
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Universidad Catolica
Universidad Catolica
4/3/2025CONMEBOL SudamericanaCONMEBOL Sudamericana · Group Stage - 1Estádio Manoel Barradas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Vitoria33%
×Draw30%
Universidad Catolica36%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vitoria
1.00
Universidad Catolica
1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 3 home / 15 away

creates per match

Vitoria
0.67
Universidad Catolica
1.13

allows per match

Vitoria
1.00
Universidad Catolica
1.33

finishing

Vitoria+0.00on par
Universidad Catolica+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vitoria ↓

Universidad Catolica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Vitoria or draw
64%
Vitoria or Universidad Catolica
70%
Draw or Universidad Catolica
67%

Winning margin

Vitoria wins by 2+
12%
Universidad Catolica wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Vitoria 1+ goals
63%
Vitoria 2+ goals
26%
Vitoria 3+ goals
8%
Universidad Catolica 1+ goals
65%
Universidad Catolica 2+ goals
29%
Universidad Catolica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Vitoria (draw refunded)
48%
Universidad Catolica (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vitoria at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Universidad Catolica away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vitoria attack 0.67 + Universidad Catolica defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Universidad Catolica attack 1.13 + Vitoria defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Vitoria scores more
33%
level
30%
Universidad Catolica scores more
36%

Universidad Catolica at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Universidad Catolica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Vitoria vs Universidad Catolica

Vitoria and Universidad Catolica drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Sudamericana on April 3, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador.